Mercedes Pascual is a renowned Uruguayan theoretical ecologist celebrated for her pioneering research on complex ecosystems and the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. She is a Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago, where she leads the Laboratory for Modeling and Theory in Ecology and Epidemiology (MATE). Her work bridges ecology, epidemiology, mathematics, and climatology, providing the first quantitative evidence of how global climate change impacts the spread of infectious diseases. Read more at chicagoname.
Biography
Mercedes Pascual was born in Uruguay and raised in Argentina and Brazil. The daughter of a chemical engineer, she began her academic journey studying marine biology and mathematics at Universidade Santa Úrsula (1978–1979) and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (1980). In 1985, she earned her Licentiate degree in Biology from the University of Buenos Aires in Argentina. By 1989, she had completed a Master’s degree in Mathematics at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
Pascual earned her Ph.D. in Biological Oceanography in 1995 through a joint program between the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Under the guidance of advisor Hal Caswell, she authored the dissertation “Some Nonlinear Problems in Plankton Ecology,” focusing on nonlinear processes in plankton ecosystem dynamics. Following her doctorate, she conducted research at Princeton University from 1995 to 1997.
Academic Career
Pascual began her teaching career as an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland (1997–2000). In 2001, she joined the University of Michigan as an Assistant Professor in the newly formed Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. She rose to Associate Professor (2004–2008) and served as the Rosemary Grant Collegiate Professor from 2008 to 2014.
Between 2008 and 2015, Pascual served as an investigator with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI). Since 2015, she has been a Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago, heading the MATE lab, which specializes in the mathematical modeling of ecological and epidemiological processes.
Scientific Research
Mercedes Pascual develops systems models to investigate complex, irregular cycles within ecosystems. Her approach utilizes mathematical, statistical, and computational analysis. She places a particular emphasis on trophic networks and food web structures, exploring the link between ecosystem architecture and dynamics. In 2006, she co-edited the book “Ecological Networks: Linking Structure to Dynamics in Food Webs” (Oxford University Press) with Jennifer A. Dunne, which explores network-based approaches to analyzing the dynamic properties of ecological systems.
A central pillar of Pascual’s research is the evolution and transmission of infectious diseases. She applies mathematical models to study cholera, malaria, and influenza. She is especially well-known for her work linking El Niño climate cycles to cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh. Pascual demonstrated a clear correlation between climate anomalies and epidemic frequency, identifying El Niño events as a primary driver of the disease. Her findings are widely considered some of the first quantitative proofs that global climate change affects disease transmission. These models offer significant predictive value, providing vital support for public health decision-making.
Awards and Honors
In 1996, Pascual was awarded the Alexander Hollaender Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowship by the U.S. Department of Energy for her work at Princeton. In 1999, she received a Centennial Fellowship from the James S. McDonnell Foundation. Discover magazine named her one of the 50 most important women in science in 2002, and she received the Robert H. MacArthur Award from the Ecological Society of America (ESA) in 2014.
Pascual was elected a Fellow of the Ecological Society of America in 2015. She is also a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and served on its Board of Directors from 2015 to 2019. In 2019, she was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. She also authored the chapter “Scales that matter: untangling complexity in ecological systems” for the 2001 J.H. Press publication, “Carving Our Destiny: Scientific Research Faces a New Millennium.”
Mercedes Pascual stands as a leading figure in theoretical ecology and mathematical epidemiology. Her interdisciplinary approach, linking ecosystem analysis with disease forecasting, is of strategic importance to global public health. Her contributions to understanding the intersection of climate change and epidemiology represent a major milestone in modern science.